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Score Needed to Hit Value = (Player Salary / 1000) x 5Įxample: Player costs $9,500. Being price-sensitive is absolutely massive in NBA DFS. He’s still a very fine option, but not that no-brainer he was at $9,500. However, if he costs $11,500, he’d need 57.5 DK points to meet value. Our 58.6-point projection smashes that, so he is a great play. So if this player costs $9,500, he’d be “meeting value” at 47.5 DK points (95 × 5). A good target is 5x salary for expensive stars. So how do we know if this player is a good play at our massaged projection of 58.6 DK points? It all depends on his salary. So our massaged projection for this player in this spot is 33.9 × 1.73 for 58.6 DK points.

03 or so because the Lakers were 12th in pace. 07 because the Lakers gave up 2.6 more DK points than salary-based expectation to point guards last year. I would initially adjust his ppm to whatever it has been in the past when the team has been shorthanded. I wouldn’t adjust his minutes in this spot because I’m not overly concerned about a blowout in a road game. Let’s say this player is a point guard, and his team is on the road, without another key player, taking on the Lakers. Questions we need to ask ourselves include will this player play fewer than 33.9 minutes on a given night because of a blowout? Should we raise his points-per-minute (ppm) projection because he’s a facing a defense that struggles against his position? Should we raise his points-per-minute projection because another key player on his team is out and he will therefore have a higher usage rate? What is the expected pace in this game? Of course, massaging a baseline projection is the key.

(33.9 Minutes) x (1.555 Fantasy Points Per Minute) = 52.7 Point Baseline Projection A baseline projection for this player is 52.7 points.

Projected Points = (Minutes Played) x (Fantasy Points Per Minute)Įxample: Player averages 1.555 fantasy points per minute and 33.9 minutes played.

For example, say a player leads the league at 1.555 DraftKings points per minute and he averages 33.9 minutes per game, we can multiply those together for a baseline projection of 52.7 DK points. We simply multiply the number of minutes we project X player to be on the court by his fantasy points per minute. It’s very easy to make a baseline projection for basketball.